Voter Turnout Effects in UK Elections Since 2010
How turnout since 2010, the 2024 dip, and Reform's regional strength change historic turnout patterns.
Analysis and commentary on UK political polling and election trends
How turnout since 2010, the 2024 dip, and Reform's regional strength change historic turnout patterns.
Our latest seat projection model shows Reform UK potentially winning the Cities of London and Westminster constituency - a seat that has never been traditionally Labour and was Conservative for 74 years before 2024. We examine whether this prediction is realistic and what recent by-election results tell us about Reform's London prospects.